A group designed specifically for discussion and activities revolving around advanced pattern formations.
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Jagger Graham posted an update in the group
Pattern Traders 2 weeks, 1 day agoIn the back testing spreadsheet, it says they want an expectancy of 3 or better and a profit factor of 1.6 or better. Has anybody been able to achieve that with the rule set taught in the lessons? I’ve had to modify the stops or targets to get there.
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Hello!
For me, it has really depended on the pair. Some are great and others are trash. I was testing the Daily, but I’ve moved on to the 4-hour as the frequency is really low on the Daily and I’m not sure patterns are the best for that timeframe.
I’ll let you know how the testing gets on!
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Tested about 15 different pairs on the 4HR with 1.13 stops and conventional targets. All came in under those numbers. Mostly around 1/1.3. AUDCAD gartley with targets at .382/.618/A got me an expectancy of 3 and profit 1.8. Also had good results on EURNZD with a 1.27 stop and conv. targets. Expectancy of 4 and profit factor of 1.8. Had to mess…[Read more]
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1.27 STOPS CONV. TARGETS:
EURNZD GARTLEY 4/1.8
EURUSD GARTLEY 3/1.8
AUDCAD BAT 2/1.8-
When you mess around with the stops and targets, how exactly do you do that? Is there an “automated” way? Or, while backtesting, you fiddle with both manually?
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Unfortunately no. Just hours and hours of manual back testing haha.
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Yeah, that’s what I figured! How far are you going? I was going back to 2010 on the 4-hour, but I’m thinking of doing a first round from 2015, since that gives me the same amount of bars as going back to 2000 with the Daily.
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When I started back testing 2019 was the last full year I had so I’ve been doing 2010-2019. Now I’m debating for future pairs doing 2010-2020, 2011-2020, or just roll with 2010-2019. Trying to keep the years consistent to compare data but also want the most recent data.
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Hi Jagger did you try and modify the money management section and then see what you get in the expectancy and profit factor section? I played around and i had a massive expectancy but was only due to position sizing. I would recommend playing with that and see what you get
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Does the money management section effect that? I thought it was based off win rate and risk reward.
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It affects the expectancy but not the profit factor i think
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I can only get them to change when I alter my backtesting data. Like my entries and exits. Are you looking at your MM% change?
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Julio Cesar Ulloa posted an update in the group
Pattern Traders 1 month, 3 weeks agoHello everyone, I’m going to start my testing in CYPHERS, any recommendation in time frame, pairs or filters?
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Time frame depends on your schedule, I have tested 4h .
I have tested 10 pairs you can start USD based
Everyone have own filter i use the filters shown in training videos
Check the videos by Gabriella in the accontabilyty sessions, Naomi G Slight in youtube and Raymond Jeffries in youtube-
Backtesting videos
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Thanks for the reply.
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Hi Julio! I’m doing the Cypher on the Daily and have done the following so far:
EURUSD
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
NZDUSD
USDJPY–> These were profitable for me and I will trade.
I also tested:
AUDCAD
AUDUSD
EURJPY
USDCAD–> These were not profitable. In the case of the AUDCAD, I think it could be profitable to do the opposite of what the Cypher says,…[Read more]
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Also, I started tracking structure, psych numbers, amount of bars between legs, RSI, etc., while testing my first pairs. I didn’t see it made much difference. However, now I do keep the EMAs on my chart since I’m noticing that if a Cypher is going bearish in a bullish trend, that doesn’t really work. I don’t have clear data yet… It’s something I…[Read more]
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Nice Mona thanks for the info, I just started testing patterns in the 4H time, I would like to add some filters specially structure to my targets but I’m dealing with the issue that ATR is big in 4H so I dont have room to do much and a lot of times
I can’t enter the trade if I want a 1/1 rr
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Hey Mona, thanks for the info. I’ve been testing .618 as target one and a retest of the highs for target two on the four hour charts with a 1 ATR stop. Would love to exchange data with anyone who is testing something similar to avoid testing as many unprofitable pairs as possible. So far these are the profitable pairs I’ve come across if you’re…[Read more]
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Hello, this is good news thanks for the info, I can get back tu you when I have more data on some pairs, it’s taking me long because I’m backtesting Cyphers, Gartley and Bats at the same time
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Hi Greg,
I’d love to swap info! I have a 9-to-5, so I manage to get on the platform sporadically. You can WhatsApp me at +507 6400-4044. I hope I?m allowed to put my phone number here, lol.
Thx!
Mona
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Greg Sajous posted an update in the group
Pattern Traders 1 month, 3 weeks agoHi guys, anyone trading the aggressive C entry for patterns? I have planned my rules and would like to discuss / share if anyone is interested. I find the C entry particularly interesting as the R:R ratio is not only quite good, there also is a potential short SL based on any violation of the A point. Anyway, let me know if anyone of you is interested. GS
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Me too. I’ll try and catch up with you, we could share where we’re at 🙂
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Sure. I only trde 3 patterns. Here are my rules for the aggressive C entry (let me know what you think):
Advance patterns aggressive C
– Identify anchor point leading to the formation of the X -A leg. (Rotation move MUST be evident)
– Once X – A and A – B are completed based on the rules for the Bat, the Gartley or the Cypher, the C point e…[Read more]
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Hi Greg, thanks for sharing.
Can I ask, was there anything which influenced the decision to place the entry at the 768 rather than the 681? (Beyond the obvious that it gives you better risk reward)
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Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted an update in the group
Pattern Traders 1 month, 3 weeks agoHi All, I now have 5 pairs of data on 4-hour CYPHER. each of them from early 2011 giving me 10 years of data. anyone else in a similar position? I know Mona has been doing a quite a bit of work on this lately
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Hey Fitzy, I am only testing the daily charts right now to fit my work schedule. Happy to discuss at some point.
Is there a WhatsApp group going where we can ping ideas across?
Cheers
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Hi Sam, thanks for the reply. I don’t know of a whatsapp group, but Mona mentioned it in another message. I reckon i am at that delicate stage where i have done quite a bit of work and now i’m possibly looking for reassurance on what i have done!!. make sure to post what you can, thanks.
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I have completed AUSUSD 240 and got 53 trades since Jan 2010, also just finished GBPUSD 240 with 65, both of those are un-filtered. So inclues trades where Stop Loss Pips are over 100
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I got 19 on AUDUSD for a similar period. I am going to run another check. In all of my data so far i looked at taking out the trades that were over 100 pips and that rubbished the performance. maybe i have under-identified valid patterns during my backtesting. Good to have someone working on a similar exercise so though. Thanks Richard.
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Hello Richard, are you taking those trades with inverse r/r? or are you using something else instead of fibs for targets
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Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted an update in the group
Pattern Traders 2 months agoHi guys, i have completed 5 pairs on the 4 -hour, CYHPER pattern now. Up to now I have just been gathering the data with no analysis so my next step is to see which pairs look like they could be tradeable. I use the Tier One money management spreadsheet. One for each pair. when i have the pairs that i think i can take forward into a portfolio, i…[Read more]
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Hello! I’m backtesting the Cypher on the Daily and have so far done EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY and am currently on EURJPY. All have done okay except for EURJPY. I may try to tweak my reentry method, but it’s looking pretty dismal.
I did backtest the EURUSD on the 4-hour starting in January 2015. I got 83 trades, a profit factor of 1.6, an…[Read more]
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Hi Mona, I found only 29 trades on EURUSD on the 4-hour. I started in April 2011. Maybe i am not seeing all the patterns that are there? I am going to ask the wider group so we can start seeing what others are getting. I am wary of trying to make direct comparisons, but I think for me, some other insights might be useful for me.
Keep an eye out…[Read more]
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No data on EURUSD Cypher yet but I have had success with 4HR EURUSD Gartley.
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