• Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted a new activity comment 3 months, 1 week ago

    I got 19 on AUDUSD for a similar period. I am going to run another check. In all of my data so far i looked at taking out the trades that were over 100 pips and that rubbished the performance. maybe i have under-identified valid patterns during my backtesting. Good to have someone working on a similar exercise so though. Thanks Richard.

  • Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted a new activity comment 3 months, 2 weeks ago

    Hi Sam, thanks for the reply. I don’t know of a whatsapp group, but Mona mentioned it in another message. I reckon i am at that delicate stage where i have done quite a bit of work and now i’m possibly looking for reassurance on what i have done!!. make sure to post what you can, thanks.

  • Hi All, I now have 5 pairs of data on 4-hour CYPHER. each of them from early 2011 giving me 10 years of data. anyone else in a similar position? I know Mona has been doing a quite a bit of work on this lately

    • Hey Fitzy, I am only testing the daily charts right now to fit my work schedule. Happy to discuss at some point.

      Is there a WhatsApp group going where we can ping ideas across?

      Cheers

      • Hi Sam, thanks for the reply. I don’t know of a whatsapp group, but Mona mentioned it in another message. I reckon i am at that delicate stage where i have done quite a bit of work and now i’m possibly looking for reassurance on what i have done!!. make sure to post what you can, thanks.

    • I have completed AUSUSD 240 and got 53 trades since Jan 2010, also just finished GBPUSD 240 with 65, both of those are un-filtered. So inclues trades where Stop Loss Pips are over 100

      • I got 19 on AUDUSD for a similar period. I am going to run another check. In all of my data so far i looked at taking out the trades that were over 100 pips and that rubbished the performance. maybe i have under-identified valid patterns during my backtesting. Good to have someone working on a similar exercise so though. Thanks Richard.

      • Hello Richard, are you taking those trades with inverse r/r? or are you using something else instead of fibs for targets

  • Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted a new activity comment 3 months, 2 weeks ago

    Hi Mona, I found only 29 trades on EURUSD on the 4-hour. I started in April 2011. Maybe i am not seeing all the patterns that are there? I am going to ask the wider group so we can start seeing what others are getting. I am wary of trying to make direct comparisons, but I think for me, some other insights might be useful for me.

    Keep an eye out…[Read more]

  • Hi guys, i have completed 5 pairs on the 4 -hour, CYHPER pattern now. Up to now I have just been gathering the data with no analysis so my next step is to see which pairs look like they could be tradeable. I use the Tier One money management spreadsheet. One for each pair. when i have the pairs that i think i can take forward into a portfolio, i…[Read more]

    • Hello! I’m backtesting the Cypher on the Daily and have so far done EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY and am currently on EURJPY. All have done okay except for EURJPY. I may try to tweak my reentry method, but it’s looking pretty dismal.

      I did backtest the EURUSD on the 4-hour starting in January 2015. I got 83 trades, a profit factor of 1.6, an…[Read more]

      • Hi Mona, I found only 29 trades on EURUSD on the 4-hour. I started in April 2011. Maybe i am not seeing all the patterns that are there? I am going to ask the wider group so we can start seeing what others are getting. I am wary of trying to make direct comparisons, but I think for me, some other insights might be useful for me.

        Keep an eye out…[Read more]

  • Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted a new activity comment 4 months, 2 weeks ago

    @sam-waters, the sad thing is, i had made an error in how i was logging losing trades which means my portfolio\’s performance was overestimated. I have done some work going back over things but so far have been unable to make the strategy work for me.

  • Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted a new activity comment 4 months, 2 weeks ago

    Hi @hakan-aras, I’ve parked the Daily Chore. I ended up making a mistake in how i was recording losing trades. i only logged one loss and i was using a 2-target strategy and should have been recording a loss for each target. I was trading the strategy live which, to be honest was going alright!! But once i realised my mistake i stopped live…[Read more]

  • Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted a new activity comment 4 months, 2 weeks ago

    @sam-miller. I use Ninja Trader so i cant help you on the trading view sorry.

  • Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted a new activity comment 4 months, 2 weeks ago

    Cheers Sam. I am working through the pairs and i am a bit worried about misreading the impulse leg. I sometimes catch myself looking and thinking, \”nah, that\’s not one\”, then scrolling along and seeing its a winner, then thinking \”Hmmm, maybe it is a valid impulse leg\”. !!!!

  • Ok Pattern traders. Can you have a look at the attached, which has some notes, and share any thoughts? thanks

    • Hey Fitzy, I would use the X leg that you have chosen. To me the Z leg looks like it is not quite the final leg in an upward move before reversing. The X point looks like the high of the reversal point, if that makes sense? The Z point doesn’t look like part of the subsequent move that you identified with the X. I might be miles off here but…[Read more]

      • Cheers Sam. I am working through the pairs and i am a bit worried about misreading the impulse leg. I sometimes catch myself looking and thinking, “nah, that’s not one”, then scrolling along and seeing its a winner, then thinking “Hmmm, maybe it is a valid impulse leg”. !!!!

    • Yep, I have exactly the same thing. Sorry I’ve been off the radar but I’ve been hammering through some backtesting this past 2 weeks testing the Cypher on some major pairs on the Daily timeframe. I Would be keen to share notes at some point!

  • Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted a new activity comment 4 months, 3 weeks ago

    Thanks Sam. I had a rule where a candle is not allowed to be, for example, the B and C point at the same time. In that case, i was just disregarding the pattern. Then i watched 12th April 2020 Q&A. Akil mentioned dropping down to a lower time frame to see what happened first, in order to make a decision. He also goes into detail about what to do…[Read more]

    • That’s an interesting rule on your B/C leg not being the same candle. I hadn’t considered that. For my i can use a low point or the high/low of any pull back to use as the base for the X leg. For instance, there could be an extended move upwards that goes into consolidation. I can use any pullback on that move as a base for my X leg, as long as…[Read more]

    • @sam-miller. I use Ninja Trader so i cant help you on the trading view sorry.

  • Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted a new activity comment 4 months, 3 weeks ago

    Thanks George. Just goes to show how easy it can be to head off down one path!! I\’m glad i asked, and really appreciate you taking time to respond. I will do some more homework. Thanks.

  • Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted a new activity comment 4 months, 4 weeks ago

    Ha Ha and June7th 2020

  • Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted a new activity comment 4 months, 4 weeks ago

    Also one from July 12th 2020

  • FYI all. There is a video in the Q&A archives that captured a Daily Chore meet up with Akil and some of the traders. September 21st 2020. Might be useful.

  • Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted a new activity comment 5 months ago

    Once i had all of my backtesting done, i started looking at putting a portfolio together. That involved making some initial decisions about which pairs i would not want to trade, based on my back testing results. There was quite a bit of experimentation and back and forth. I ended up with 4 pairs. Once i had all of the data for the 4 pairs in one…[Read more]

  • Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted an update in the group Group logo of Graystone Daily ChoreGraystone Daily Chore 5 months ago

    @hakan-aras. Hi Hakan, how are you doing? Are you working on the Daily Chore at the moment? Are you trading the Daily Chore live? would be good to catch up.

    • Hi @fitzy-fitzsimmons, I am doing alright mate, been a little busy recently for my upcoming wedding 🙂 Sorry for my late response. After our final review with you about 3 months ago, I have tested the 15 pairs once again with different target scenarios (1:1, 1:1.5, and/or PSAR) and unfortunately, none of the combinations work for me in terms of…[Read more]

      • Hi @hakan-aras, I’ve parked the Daily Chore. I ended up making a mistake in how i was recording losing trades. i only logged one loss and i was using a 2-target strategy and should have been recording a loss for each target. I was trading the strategy live which, to be honest was going alright!! But once i realised my mistake i stopped live…[Read more]

  • Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted an update in the group Group logo of Pattern TradersPattern Traders 5 months ago

    Hi All, as i go along back testing the Cypher pattern (sure this applies to the other advanced patterns too?), i find that sometimes i question myself over whether the X-A leg that i am marking as the impulse leg, really is an impulse leg. I have found that the pattern formations can apply to small groups of candles as well as playing out over…[Read more]

    • Hey Fitzy, not to be to technical about what you call your X -A legs but that will never be an impulse leg. A impulse leg is defined by a break of structure and that X – A move for me did not break any structure level, but instead that will be an anchor leg as it has occurred within your most recent structure High and Low. Again it really doesn’t…[Read more]

      • Thanks George. Just goes to show how easy it can be to head off down one path!! I’m glad i asked, and really appreciate you taking time to respond. I will do some more homework. Thanks.

    • Great answer, George. I have been asking myself the same question this week during backtesting. Fitzy, if you have any rules you’d like to discuss then I’m happy to share some guidelines I’ve put in place for myself

      • Thanks Sam. I had a rule where a candle is not allowed to be, for example, the B and C point at the same time. In that case, i was just disregarding the pattern. Then i watched 12th April 2020 Q&A. Akil mentioned dropping down to a lower time frame to see what happened first, in order to make a decision. He also goes into detail about what to do…[Read more]

        • That’s an interesting rule on your B/C leg not being the same candle. I hadn’t considered that. For my i can use a low point or the high/low of any pull back to use as the base for the X leg. For instance, there could be an extended move upwards that goes into consolidation. I can use any pullback on that move as a base for my X leg, as long as…[Read more]

        • @sam-miller. I use Ninja Trader so i cant help you on the trading view sorry.

  • Fitzy Fitzsimmons posted an update in the group Group logo of Pattern TradersPattern Traders 5 months ago

    @andy-hewitt i forgot to attach this image to reply to your message about EURUSD, sorry.

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