• Jagger Graham posted an update in the group Group logo of Pattern TradersPattern Traders 2 months, 1 week ago

    In the back testing spreadsheet, it says they want an expectancy of 3 or better and a profit factor of 1.6 or better. Has anybody been able to achieve that with the rule set taught in the lessons? I’ve had to modify the stops or targets to get there.

    • Hello!

      For me, it has really depended on the pair. Some are great and others are trash. I was testing the Daily, but I’ve moved on to the 4-hour as the frequency is really low on the Daily and I’m not sure patterns are the best for that timeframe.

      I’ll let you know how the testing gets on!

      • Tested about 15 different pairs on the 4HR with 1.13 stops and conventional targets. All came in under those numbers. Mostly around 1/1.3. AUDCAD gartley with targets at .382/.618/A got me an expectancy of 3 and profit 1.8. Also had good results on EURNZD with a 1.27 stop and conv. targets. Expectancy of 4 and profit factor of 1.8. Had to mess with stops and targets to achieve what the spreadsheet wants.

        • 1.27 STOPS CONV. TARGETS:
          EURNZD GARTLEY 4/1.8
          EURUSD GARTLEY 3/1.8
          AUDCAD BAT 2/1.8

          • When you mess around with the stops and targets, how exactly do you do that? Is there an “automated” way? Or, while backtesting, you fiddle with both manually?

          • Yeah, that’s what I figured! How far are you going? I was going back to 2010 on the 4-hour, but I’m thinking of doing a first round from 2015, since that gives me the same amount of bars as going back to 2000 with the Daily.

            • When I started back testing 2019 was the last full year I had so I’ve been doing 2010-2019. Now I’m debating for future pairs doing 2010-2020, 2011-2020, or just roll with 2010-2019. Trying to keep the years consistent to compare data but also want the most recent data.

    • Hi Jagger did you try and modify the money management section and then see what you get in the expectancy and profit factor section? I played around and i had a massive expectancy but was only due to position sizing. I would recommend playing with that and see what you get

      • Does the money management section effect that? I thought it was based off win rate and risk reward.

        • It affects the expectancy but not the profit factor i think

          • I can only get them to change when I alter my backtesting data. Like my entries and exits. Are you looking at your MM% change?

            • How do you get the Money Management part to work? Mine has never actually calculated, and I have the latest up-to-date Excel and what not.

              I just finished EURUSD on the 4-hour (FINALLY) and I got an expectancy of 3 with a profit factor of 2.1 going back to 2015. I reenter (based on my “broken pattern strategy” rules) and used the fixed pip SL. I found that the fixed pip did me better than the others.

            • Are you pasting your data from somewhere else? Sometimes it doesn’t work if not formatted properly. Those are awesome results. How do you choose the fixed pip amount?

    • No! I’m inputting the data right in the sheet :-/

      I’m using 10 pips from the X point, and it really overperformed for EURUSD compared to the fib. This could depend on the pair though :-/

      • Probably because of the smaller losses. There’s a good book called Trade What You See. Author uses a similar stop. Almost done testing 4hr EURUSD bats. So far expectancy/profit factor at 1/1.2 for the 1.13 fib and 3/1.5 for 1.27 fib stop. Could be a good one to test next for your fixed pip.